Bull Markets, Bear Markets & Corrections

Correction: −10% from a high (roughly annual; routine). Bear market: −20% (a few per decade, averaging ~9–18 months). Bull market: the 20%+ advances between them, historically far longer-lived than bears. The asymmetry — long gradual bulls, short violent bears — shapes everything: time in the market wins for investors precisely because of it.

Early bull: everything rallies hard off the low, breadth explodes (the most-missed phase — disbelief keeps people out). Mature bull: leadership narrows, dips get shallower. Bear: rallies are sharp but fail at lower highs; correlation goes to 1 and diversification within equities stops helping. Tactics must match phase: breakouts thrive early, mean-reversion survives chop, cash is a position in confirmed bears.

You can't call turns in advance; you CAN classify the present: is the index above a rising 200MA? Are rallies making higher highs? Is breadth confirming? Classification updates tactics without requiring prediction.